Russia will stop it’s deliveries of natural gas to Poland tomorrow 2022-04-27 according to the BBC. They are apparently not heavily dependent on Russian gas and have significant reserves:
PGNiG said its underground gas storage was almost 80% full and, with summer approaching, demand was lower.
Poland also has alternative supply sources, including a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Swinoujscie.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61237519
I really hope both Germany and Poland realize that any infrastructure used to import gas from other sources than Russia are the biggest missile-magnets in the world right now. Any LNG-port needs to be treated as a high value target like the White House or NATO headquarters. People should barely be allowed to look at it, much less fly within 100 kilometers. Russian submarines are a more obvious threat so a significant naval deployment around these ports needs to be permanent.
Would Russia attack infrastructure belonging to a NATO country? I think so. Primarily by way of them thinking “NATO can’t prove it was us”. Lavrov complained the other week about how the West betray their claims to “innocent until proven guilty”, but that is a legal guarantee that under the law. Russia is a sovereign nation and is neither subject to nor protected by the laws of any other nation. If Russia is willing to submit itself to the jurisdiction of German law – for instance – then they can make a claim for also being protected by the principle of “innocent until proven guilty”.
It is of course a nonsensical argument anyway since it’s not exactly difficult to prove that Russia has invaded Ukraine. But still, NATO is under no obligation to go to a court of law to impose sanctions or use military force. Most countries in NATO require a certain political procedure for that to happen but all that is needed is that the Bundestag and the British parliament vote in favor of military action against Russia. So “NATO can’t prove it was us” is not a very good basis for attacking NATO-members’ infrastructure. But Russia has been making precious few good decisions of late… Hence why I see a real risk that Russia will attack German and Polish gas infrastructure.
I like the lack of subtlety demonstrated by the US:
At a news conference in Poland after the visit, Mr Austin told reporters the US wants to see “Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61214176
That’s entirely correct. We can not rely on Russia abiding by its obligations in trade or in respecting the territory of other sovereign nations. Only the inability of Russia to attack other countries can be relied upon. I think that 20 years from now a new government in Russia will sign a document with Ukraine and the EU settling their disagreements. Ukraine recognizes the right of eastern provinces to vote on independence in UN-monitored electrions, Russia leaves Crimea, pays war reparations to Ukraine and the EU remove sanctions against Russia. And afterwards the head of the EU will privately tell the Russian president at the time “The sanctions may be gone, but try selling anything to the West and you will see how keen we are to line your pockets. So don’t make any lofty plans about elevating yourself above Soviet-Russia-circa-1975.”
People will of course argue that a weakened Russia is a dangerous Russia, pointing to the fall of the Weimar Republic and the rise of Nazi Germany. But Germany was allowed to violate the Treaty of Versaille, borrow lots of money and take numerous territories from its neighbours so I don’t really see the policy of “keep Germany weak” being maintained beyond 1927. Germany was allowed to rearm because the Soviet union was seen as a greater threat and a strong Germany would be a good roadblock for communist expansion.
Look instead at North Korea and Iraq. North Korea shoots a few artillery rounds here, fires a few bullets at some South Korean fishing-boat there… They’re busy keeping their country from collapsing and seem to be aware that any open hostilities will start the clock counting down the last 168 hours of their regime. Iraq after the sanctions were introduced and their military fed through a wood-chipper… Not a major source of trouble for the rest of the world. Which made the second gulf war so embarrassing; there wasn’t even a real threat that needed dealing with.
If Putin is so keen on restoring the “glory days” of Russia – notably the period of time which has made all Russia’s neighbours hate their guts – then he has gone about it terribly. You need modern industry, not Soviet-era factories that have never heard of “quality control” or “tolerances”. You need educated people, skilled in physics, electronics, computers, chemistry, rocketry and so on. Go head, name a university in Russia! I’m sure they have them but they aren’t exactly drowning in Nobel prizes or even getting enough mentions in scientific literature to make the rest of the world know they exist.
You also need to make the military something that people want to be part of. No one wants to be shot at but you can still make military service look like a positive thing in sum total, offsetting the whole “I might get shot”-thing with “I learn useful skills and am well paid”. In the Soviet Union people wanted to serve in the military. It was a proper career-choice. A few veteran Chechen yahoos and 100 000 raw recruits drafted six months ago doesn’t work quite as well.
I don’t see much room for Russia to catch up in this regard now. It’s not that they can’t teach their factory-workers how to use a micrometer or their students what role convolution plays in signal processing. At least I don’t think that constitutes a major problem for Russia. But using better trained workers and engineers to build a strong modern economy, that’s where they’re kind of screwed because they aren’t going to get that from the West and China isn’t looking overly keen on it either. How much does China really trust Russia now? Invade one neighbour, then maybe another?
No, the past 20 years should have been spent very differently if Putin was going to go all Peter the Great on us. Peter the Great by the way was a major modernizer of Russia who tried to make it catch up to the more advanced states in Europe, building a navy and reforming agriculture. It worked rather well as it happens. See where you went wrong here Mr. Putin?
2022-04-27
The plug has been pulled on Poland and Bulgaria as previously indicated. Or maybe given the circumstances it better to say that the plug has been set? Because they’ve “plugged” the pipelines carrying gas to Poland and Bulgaria? Semantics aside, it’s interesting that Poland openly says they get gas from Germany and Slovakia. Russia can’t let that slide, they will have to threaten to stop gas deliveries to any countries providing Poland and Bulgaria with gas. Otherwise it’s an entirely meaningless “sanction” that Russia has introduced.
But Germany is in enough hot water already for buying Russian oil and gas, they’re not going to stop providing Poland with gas just because Russia threatens to stop their deliveries as well. They might as well burn their country to the ground if they cave to those demands, or the rest of Europe will do it for them. So I can’t see any way for this to proceed except EU countries circumventing Russian gas “sanctions” and Russia cutting all gas supplies except to Hungary(note: all pipelines bringing natural gas from Russia to Hungary go through Ukraine or other EU countries 🙂
Then we will finally see Russia sweat. They’ll be out atleast 400 million euros a day. And that will hasten the end of the war in Ukraine. First there will only be a cease-fire agreement, then an armistice, then a North/South-Korea negotiating period to cover up the fact that neither side is willing to budge. But that’s precisely where we need to go, to the point where Ukranians aren’t being killed day in and day out. Then we can let the sanctions resolve the matter over the next couple of years.
One possible development is that Russia buckles under the pressure of lost revenue from oil and gas and agrees to sell to all EU states, no special conditions. But I don’t think that would fly with the EU once the tap has been closed. Saying “Yes, we will resume funding the Russian war machine now that you accept payment in Euros, even though you’re still filling mass graves with Ukranian civilians” is not something EU politicians feel all that comfortable with. Except Hungary of course. People in Europe like Heineken a lot more than they like politicians and companies have poured out of the Russian market to avoid being seen as playing nice with the Russian regime.
So yeah, backpedaling on gas-trade with Russia won’t work for the EU once the trade stops and the war continues. It will be the first change once the firing stops. A temporary cease-fire will be enough for the EU to start buying Russian gas again. But we’ll see. Maybe Russia will just buckle immediately. They haven’t done anything else right so why try to make even a little bit of sense?
2022-04-28
One of Germany’s biggest energy firms has said it is preparing to buy Russian gas using a payment system that critics say will undermine EU sanctions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61257846
So, it’s treason then? Very well. Time to start boycotting German goods and services. Well, Austrian and Italian too obviously, they’re also planning to bow to the Russians. This is going to be a pain in the neck, checking out what goods come from Germany or use parts from Germany… It’s slightly easier with Italy. Italian ham is marked as just that. Does Austria export anything? Oh, right. They have some industrial companies that provide heavy equipment.
If their respective governments put and end to this nonsense that changes everything but I don’t see that happening. It’s too inconvenient for them to stop importing gas from Russia. I think it’s pretty clear that appeasement isn’t a viable strategy. The next Russian demand will be that European countries stop providing military aid to Ukraine, or no more gas. Then they will have to stop providing all forms of aid – financial or otherwise – to Ukraine or no more gas. Eventually Russia will go too far and demand that European countries withdraw from NATO or no more gas. Then even Germany and Italy will refuse and: no more gas. But by then they will have already made it clear that they will acquisce to any demands that are mildly inconvenient. And that’s not going to help them or the EU.
Here’s one thing that we can’t blame on Russia. They’re not weakening the EU, Germany, Austria and Italy are. It’s in response to Russian demands but every EU member state is a sovereign nation that can choose its own course. It’s Germany, Austria and Italy that put industrial output above peace in Europe. Because Russia’s war machine is running on European money day in and date out. Everyone is well aware that nothing will shorten the war faster than a total boycott of Russia.
Note that we have alternatives to Russian gas. There are plenty of mothballed nuclear and coal-fired power plants in central Europe that can be started up within a few months. Obviously the countries in question won’t like that, but it’s an alternative to “do whatever Russia asks” and “massive economic downturn”. If there was an option in there that the Russian-gas-dependent countries of Europe liked then that would have been decided on already. But no.
It’s easy to think that nuclear power plants can’t be activated because country X introduced a law saying that once a plant is de-licensed it can’t be licensed again, but that same nation has the right to change that law. Laws are what countries use to express what they want and don’t want, not some external force that countries are powerless to control.
Same thing with the lack of LNG terminals being built right now in Germany. I can recommend the newsreel Building the Liberty Ships During World War II – Birth of Victory 1945. When a country is caught off-guard and says “Oh dear… We dropped the ball big time!” then things get done right quick. On the same note is the newsreel about Detroit Arsenal Tank Plant which was a Chrysler-plant that they started building before they even got a signed contract from the government. Before the building was complete they started building tanks in the finished parts, using a steam locomotive to heat the place.
I’m not seeing Germany or Italy put in nearly that kind of work to sever ties with Russia. No, it will be done by 2030… I’m a big fan of the EU but it has already alienated the United Kingdom to the point where they left. The rise of Le Pen in France isn’t a great vote of confidence for the EU. This isn’t helping either. It might seem petty to get worked up about, which currency is used to buy something, but it’s a matter of Germany acceding to Russian demands that Germany publically recognizes being illegitimate, because they “have to”. Once you agree to something that you know and openly recognize as being blackmail because you “have to”, then more demands will follow and more concessions will be given.
The governments of central Europe can put a stop to this, refusing to let gas companies that abide by Russian demands use the national gas grid(for instance). I don’t think that they will, but that’s the decision that they are mulling over right now. Hopefully there are plenty of reports from other countries in the EU in particular and the West in general that countries that dance to Russia’s tune won’t have many trading partners left.
2022-04-30
The sooner the West accepts the new geopolitical reality the better for themselves and for the international community.
Russian foreign minister Lavrov ( translated from https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/lavrov-usa-och-nato-bor-sluta-skicka-vapen-till-ukraina )
That’s… “optimistic”, let’s say. Russia’s still raking in money from oil and gas, it hasn’t felt much pressure from sanctions yet. 30% of government revenue disappearing in a year or two as fossil fuel sales to Europe dry out, that’s where the real pain begins. Lavrov is dangerously close to Baghdad Bob. This is in the same vein:
“If the US and Nato are really interested in resolving the Ukraine crisis, then first of all, they should wake up and stop supplying the Kyiv regime with arms and ammunition,” Lavrov said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61252785
Yes… If Russia wins without further opposition, that would end the fighting. That’s true… But what gives Russia the idea that the West or Ukraine considers total Russian victory an acceptable conclusion to hostilities? To what audience is he speaking? The Russian audience? I didn’t know they wanted the Russian people to know that their “special military operation” has found itself fighting not only Ukraine but also the military hardware of the US, Germany, France, Sweden, Poland, Norway etc. etc. etc. I guess it serves their “The West is trying to destroy Russia”-spiel but not so much the “No need to worry about Russia invading Eastern Europe”-spiel.
The BBC published a less impressive article about which nations side with Russia or at least don’t side with the West. It has some good information but this…
Then there is the accusation, shared by many, especially in Muslim-majority countries, that the West, led by its most powerful nation – the US – is guilty of hypocrisy and double standards. In 2003, the US and UK chose to bypass the UN – and much of world opinion – by invading Iraq on spurious grounds, leading to years of violence.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61272203
Who let Mr. Gardner write a piece about international relations? If someone thinks “hypocrisy and double standards” is a factor in international relations, that’s kind of disqualifying. The population of muslim-majority countries may well get upset about such things but the governments of those nations don’t get themselves worked up over other countries being hypocritical or applying double-standards. No government supports Ukraine out of moral principle, they either bow to public pressure or see their own national interests converging with those of Ukraine.
Europe isn’t too keen on a new war in Europe. Iraq couldn’t care less. I wouldn’t even bother to try to change that. They’re not going to want to side with Russia because they are just as likely to get invaded by Russia as by NATO, but it is a matter of supreme indifference to them what happens in Ukraine. Much like we don’t care about what happens in Iraq. No, the Ukraine-situation is much like everything else in international politics about national self-interest, alliances along with military and economic risks. I might hold a grudge against Russia(oh boy, do I hold a grudge) but whoever runs Sweden or any other country will put such things out of their mind to determine what is the most prudent course of action.
A quote I like from History Matters on YouTube comes to mind, referring to why the UK didn’t declare war on Soviet Union when they invaded Poland just after Germany did in 1939.
The UK was weighing its options and prioritising victory over Germany over all other things, including Poland existing.
https://youtu.be/WARonsfUOvw?t=87
2022-05-02
So… The foreign minister now argues that Hitler was Jewish? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-61296682
Russian swastika-flag when? (<— If you wonder about the grammar there, it’s a meme-thing, don’t worry about it)
Meanwhile in Western Europe, Germany says it’s willing to stop buying Russian oil by the end of the year. Good news for Hungary I suppose. It’s easy to kick them out of the EU but it’s going to be harder to kick Germany out. But that only means the EU as a whole creeks under the internal tension. Since the outbreak of the war 35 billion euros have been paid by various EU countries to Russia in exchange for fossile fuels. Doesn’t look too good.
Imagine if those 35 billion Euros had not been paid! The Russian government would have had to print an equivalent number of Roubles. But already by the first 10 billion Euro-equivalent the value of the Rouble would have dropped considerably, so the next 10 billion Euro-equivalent would have had to contain more Roubles. Russia can offset some problems by printing money but it’s only a stalling tactic and it would be quite a stressor for the government to be so seriously short of foreign capital.
That’s the weird thing about the Russian demand for payment in Roubles. Getting paid in Euros means you can buy Roubles yourself if you want, but you also have the option to spend the Euros on stuff. You don’t see Sri Lanka demanding to be paid in… whatever currency they have… Foreign currency is the hard stuff to get a hold of. You want to prop up the Rouble? Fine, spend your oil- and gas-Euros on Roubles then, no need to make European countries do the exchanging for you.
Maybe the fact that it barely benefits Russia at all was part of the plan? To make the EU go along with it, setting a precedent of acceding to Russian demands. The first one is almost damaging to Russia, so people give the thumbs up. Then the next demand will be easier to sell since the EU has already begun caving in to demands. Of course, it doesn’t really seem like Russia’s doing to much thinky-thinky-brain stuff of late so maybe it’s just me overthinking it, trying to assign some sliver of sense to what their doing? Their foreign minister arguing that Hitler was Jewish kind of underlines that point. It’s almost like one of those bad lip-reading videos only it’s the actual foreign minister of Russia talking.
2022-05-20
Tukey’s ambassador to Sweden, Hakki Emre Yunt, says that he would very much like to see member of Swedish parliament Amineh Kakabaveh extradited to Turkey.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/finland-ger-natobesked
Oh, I haven’t laughed that hard all week… Turkey hasn’t been winning any popularity-contests in Europe or North-America in the past two decades and their spiel over Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO-applications hasn’t helped much I suspect. The law of least resistance leads me to believe that NATO countries have asked both Sweden and Finland to try to appease Turkey privately but that probably came to an end today. The Turkish ambassador has tried to backpedal on his statement with great zeal but it’s now quite clear that Turkey wants to use their seat around the NATO-table to extradite democratically elected officials from other countries.
That simplifies matters even if it doesn’t make them easier. I see little way around this impasse other than a new multilateral alliance – which has nothing do with NATO *wink wink* – that just happens to include all NATO-members except Turkey, Sweden and Finland. Complete coincidence! That would basically be a polite way of kicking Turkey out of NATO so it’s not anyone’s first choice but Turkey leaves few alternatives. Keep in mind that Turkey’s complaints against Sweden have a lot to do with our government’s support for the YPG guerilla, which the US has also furnished with money and weapons. Complaints also include a limitation on military equipment sold to Turkey, which is something that both other EU countries and other NATO members have adopted.
So Turkey is picking a fight over the policies of the United States, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland. As it stands they only oppose the impending NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, but the other countries I mentioned that are already in NATO and have supported YPG even more and imposed even more stringent restrictions on arms sales to Turkey are probably not too sympathetic to Turkey’s position is my point. Turkey used to be quite an important part of NATO but with the advent of intercontinental ballistic missiles(as opposed to shorter range ones) their importance dwindled slightly. Then when the Soviet Union collapsed Turkey lost yet more of its status and as former Warzaw pact members joined NATO Turkey no longer held the position of “closest NATO-country to Russia”. Their increasing Islamist tendency just adds fuel to the fire.
It’s kind of gutsy for Turkey to push this issue given that the predecessor to Turkey – the Ottoman empire – fought so many wars against Russia over the centuries. Alienating the other members of the military alliance you’re part of doesn’t seem like a smart move.