Who blew up the pipelines in the Baltic sea this week? Most people say Russia did it and I agree. Germany is trying to keep deliveries going, so they can be ruled out. Ukraine? Well, they have a pipeline going through their own territory. They can shut off Russian gas supplies to Europe by pushing a button. Blowing up two pipelines not in active use? Makes little sense.
But of course even the best theory – Russia did it – makes little sense. Russia too can just shut off gas supplies by pushing a button. Indeed they have in the case of Nordstream 1. They ain’t pumping nothing into that pipeline so blowing it up changes nothing. If anything Russia runs the risk of Germany thinking “Whoo-boy, better fix that pipeline to make gas deliveries possible.” If Russia just came right out and said “We won’t be supplying any gas through Nordstream 1 or 2″(the latter having never been taken into service, I know) Germany would have been in no doubt that they either had to make friends with Russia or get no gas.
But here’s the thing: Russia has consistently done stupid, pointless things that hurt Russia more than it hurts anyone else. So we can’t rule out that they did this stupid thing on the grounds that they wouldn’t do something stupid. They clearly do stupid things! It might seem like this doesn’t hurt Russia, since the pipelines were owned by Germany and were things that Germany was most interested in preserving. But having now attacked other countries’ energy infrastructure Russia has finally succeeded in getting the EU to deploy it’s military to protect such infrastructure. Something which should have been obvious to all involved nations some time ago.
It’s not that Russia can’t do things right. Annexing the occupied territory in Ukraine is – under the circumstances – a good move. It’s only a good move because they screwed themselves over for seven months straight but still, credit where credit is due. They can still screw up by claiming territory not currently held by Russian forces. That would make the whole referendum-ploy pointless and would bind Russia to capture territory that the Ukrainians are apparently very capable of defending. So we’ll see.
Also, why do people talk trash about the referendums as if though they are illegitimate because of the manner in which they were organized? The referendums could have been held with all the appropriate safeguards for freedom of speech, anonymous voting et cetera and they would still have been completely irrelevant. It’s not up to the population of Donetsk to decide if Donetsk is part of Ukraine. The people of Ukraine as a whole are the only ones who can redraw the borders of Ukraine. See the independence-referendum in Catalunia for a good comparison. They can ask for independence all they want. Unless a majority of Spain’s population votes in favor of their proposal: no change.
Now, I’m not entirely stupid… I understand that many of the people who want to undermine the recent referendums in Russian-held Ukrainian territory by pointing to procedural errors do so because they actually consider it to be entirely up to any small clique of people to declare independence, and have supported such referendums previously because they liked whoever was organizing them. So they are poorly placed to now suddenly acknowledge that maybe that’s a bad way of dividing up the world into tiny chunks. Belonging to some specific ethnicity doesn’t give you special powers to seize the territory of a sovereign nation.
This is anothing way in which Russia has screwed up, by now contradicting their many, many years of opposing the idea that ethnicity equals the privilege to seize arbitrary land. Now suddenly Russians can seize Ukrainian territory on ethnic grounds. A bad move for a country made up of so many ethnic groups. And something that their number one ally China is unlikely to appreciate.
The best route forward now would be for Ukraine to reject Russia’s annexation but announce their intention to resolve the issue of remaining Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory diplomatically. Russia won’t be able to complain about how Ukraine is invading “their” territory and might give Putin an opportunity to declare victory. The issue of what territory belongs to whom can then be resolved over time, with time working against Russia as it loses more and more of its trade with the industrialized world. Russia might in this situation reject any notions of peace because why not chop off even more of their own fingers? It’s like I’ve said: the only plan in Putin’s mind that could be served perfectly by everything that he has done is an attempt at trolling his successor and I suppose also the Russian people. If that’s his plan, he’s doing a marvelous job.
2022-09-30
Peskov further states that anyone talking about nuclear escalation behaves irresponsibly.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/direktrapport-forsamrat-sakerhetslage
Uhm… Yeeees. I would agree Mr. Peskov… But perhaps that’s a conversation to have with the Tsar of Russia? It seems a tad weird to make this statement to anyone else on planet Earth to be honest.
The Russian foreign minister also declares that even parts of the the four annexed parts of Ukraine not currently held by Russia should be viewed as annexed, citing de jure. Congratulations on winning Most audacious interpretation of international law-award of 2022! Invading a country, taking their land, redrawing their borders and then saying that legally the invaded country has to hand over even more land.
This undermines any claim Russia makes that the territory it occupies is Russian territory, an attack on which is an attack on Russia. With the same claim now being applied to Ukranian-held territory, one cannot support the idea of Russian-occupied Kherson being Russian without demanding that Ukraine hand over the rest of the region to Russia. And now Russia can just point to any piece of land, state it is Russian – Putin has previously argued that Ukraine is a natural part of Russia – and no-one can oppose it. That’s going to find a lot of traction around the world… Countries will be lining up to sign the “Russia can have anything it wants just by saying it”-petition. Well done on screwing up the one thing you could have done right!
Could they not stop delivering gas to Europe now please? It’s the biggest screw-up they could make! It’s just sitting there, ripe for the taking. How can Putin resist such a marvelous opportunity to screw Russia over? It will deprive Russia’s government of 1/3 of it’s annual revenue in a stroke. Europe has spent seven months finding replacements, powering up coal-plants and fast-tracking the Norway-Poland gas pipeline. How long will Russia last without gas-sales? I wish Europe had pulled the plug but that’s clearly not going to happen, so we can only put our hopes to the Russian penchant for screwing up.
2022-10-12
At the Moscow forum, Mr Putin described the leaks an “act of international terrorism”. But he said Russia was ready to resume supplies via the one intact part of Nord Stream 2.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63231826
Oooohhh… So the point was to force Germany to open Nord Stream 2? But that’s idiotic… What value is there to forcing Germany to bring Nord Stream 2 online? I mean – first off – it’s not happening:
But Germany quickly rejected Mr Putin’s offer to send gas via Nord Stream 2.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63231826
But even if it had worked, how would that help? You’re losing a war you started against a smaller country. Making a third party say “Fine, we’ll agree to do something we said we wouldn’t and use the other pipeline” doesn’t seem like it would even register on Russia’s list of priorities. It seems like it would rank somewhere above “Get North Korea to say Russia is fantastic” and just below “Find the missing remote to Putin’s favorite TV”.
Why not just stop delivering gas via Nord Stream 1 and then say “Gas will only be delivered via Nord Stream 2” if they think scoring points on this is worth even five minutes of their time? Blowing up pipelines seems a roundabout way to accomplish that task.
Over the past year, Russia cut its gas supplies to EU states by 88%, according to David Fyfe, chief economist with research firm Argus Media.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63231826
Oh—key… Uhm… Then I guess we’re almost at where we need to be: Russia selling no gas to Europe. A bit surprising that they’ve gone that far. But appreciated none the less. I mean, the real goal is to deprive Russia of income but I doubt this 88% reduction in volume leaves them with 100% the income, even with higher gas prices. Interesting…
2022-10-14
The EU:s head of foreign affairs Josep Borrell warns Russia that its forces will be “annihilated” by the West if any form of nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine:
Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will trigger a retaliation, not a nuclear retaliation but such a powerful military retaliation that the Russian army will cease to exist.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/eu-topp-rysslands-styrkor-kan-forintas (in Swedish)
Nicely done. I’ve been hoping for this clarification for months now. Russia using nukes is them demonstrating the weakness of their conventional forces. The response from NATO and the EU will be massive but there will be no need for a nuclear response. Western conventional weapon systems can easily cut off all Russian forces outside Russian territory and if they don’t surrender – annihilate them. Even implying that nuclear weapons are on the table when you’ve invaded a smaller country and have your ass handed to you is a sign of weakness that I don’t think Russia benefits from showing the world.
I guess it’s not that hard to cut off Russian forces within Russia either but that’s probably not on the table as an initial response. Russia uses a nuke => Russia and Belarus can just write off anything they have within Ukranian territory and any future access to Ukranian territory. If they try to play hardball at that stage => bad times will be had by all, Russia first and foremost. Not a good outcome. It’s much better for this to grind to a stalemate. Let the economic problems destabilize the regime in Belarus first. They were horribly poor before the war!
Then let the same forces grind down the Russian regime. That ought to take longer though. Belarus is a country that makes Russia look like some future space empire, on account of Russia having tractors. So Belarus first, Russia second. But we’ve seen their military fall apart way faster than expected so I wouldn’t bet on Russia holding out for too many years in the face of a huge shortfall in trade. Not that I’m a betting man, really… I’m more of a hedging man.
Thinking of Belarus and Russia, I’m reminded of this old meme:
No one has made a similar meme about Belarus because it would be too depressing.
2022-11-04
The UN official co-ordinating the grain deal, Amir Abdulla, praised Turkey’s role in the talks and welcomed Russia’s decision. However, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock emphasised that Moscow had backed down.
“Russia has again tried to use hunger as a weapon, to use grain as a weapon,” she told German website Die Welt.
“The world community has made clear: No, we don’t believe your lies, we will continue to send ships… so the poorest in the world do not have to suffer so massively from this war of aggression.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63483133
Of for the love of… Like Russia can’t just sink them if they want? Don’t try to make it seem like Russia had no choice in this matter. It’s just that the choice consisted of
(1) stopping Ukrainian grain exports and declaring war on numerous other countries in the world(seizing or sinking a vessel from country X in international waters is either an act of piracy or an act of war against country X)
or
(2) not do something incredibly stupid and let the grain exports continue.
And for once Russia chose not to shoot itself in the foot. But it’s still a choice.
What I really object to is the remarkable lack of savoir faire. You don’t taunt your enemy when he gives in to your demands. See the text above about how Russia’s attempt to make Germany backpedal on Nordstream 2 would have been a complete waste of time and energy for Russia even if it had worked. It’s the same thing here. This kind of posturing is what I would expect from a street gang in LA who spray their graffiti over some other gang’s tags. Or from Russia… But I thought Germany had found some people with a modicum of sense these past few months. I stand corrected.